Real estate deflation will be the most damaging asset to the average American due to the widespread ownership of real property in the coming GREATER DEPRESSION. A sick housing sector means fewer jobs for construction workers, realtors and others tied directly to the industry. In addition, homeowners "under water" - who owe on the home more than they could sell it for - are not likely to spend any money fixing them up or even buying furniture. Almost 70 percent of Nevada homeowners are in this boat. In Arizona the number is half and in California it is 33 percent. Foreclosures spiked in August of 2010 with Nevada again leading with one in every 84 households receiving a foreclosure notice. Here is the latest sad real estate deflation economy statistics as of September 26, 2010:
More than 1 million Americans will lose their homes this year. 1.7 million homeowners got foreclosure warnings in first 6 mos. 7.3 million home loans are in some stage of delinquency. 1 out of every 17 received a foreclosure notice in Nevada. Arizona, Florida, California,(UT, GA, MI, ID, Il, CO)were next. 64 percent of Nevada property sales were foreclosures. New York had the biggest REO (bank owned) discount - 52% over properties not in foreclosure - KY, IL, OH & CA were 35%. Foreclosure sales increased 2,500% from 2005 to 2009. It takes about 15 months for a home go through the foreclosure process. 28 million homes in America are "under water" - their value is less than the loan. Existing home sales dropped 27% in June of 2010 the largest drop ever. More evidence of real estate deflation. For October 2010 the number of home sales in the San Francisco Bay Area fell by 20% from a year ago. Foreclosures increased 25% in June of 2010 to a record 95,304.12.October 2010 - Unemployment increases in 27 states Existing home sales in California dropped to 6,698 an eighteen year low not seen since 1992. A new wave of home foreclosures is coming in the second half of 2010 as the unemployment rate remains high, mortgage-assistance programs fail, and the economy stalls. Many variable rate loans sold with low "teaser" rates are to be reset. Most commercial loans are often sold with a short due date and many of them will have to be refinanced. The properties and/or the owners may not qualify for a new refinance when the loans become due putting new pressure on commercial property prices.
You can expect a 90 - 99% real estate deflation in prices at the 2016-2018 low.
I bought my first real estate, 60 acres for 0 an acre, while still in high school. This was with money my two other bothers and I made by selling 4-H cattle at the local county fair. We then ran 15 black angus cows and a bull on the land and paid for it with their offspring in 5 years.
I went to an agricultural college, but changed to a business major half way through. While in college I passed the California Real Estate salesman license exam. In 1968, at the age of 19 home sales was my summer break profession/job. I sold 10 houses in 2 months that first summer and bought a house, a 1962 chrysler imperial car with creamy ivory colored leather seats and paid for the rest of my college. Now you can see why I changed majors. The summer before I worked like a dog at a cattle feedlot for .46 an hour, 10 hours a day. I have been an award-winning agent in good standing here in the San Francisco Bay Area of California ever since (license CA DRE # 00330978).
Don't be afraid to own a house. Just as long as you can get it free and clear or as long as you can afford the payments. You have to live somewhere. You have to have a roof over your head. You would have to pay rent anyway. Most landlords don't allow dogs and cats either. Do they? The best strategy right now is to own real estate outright or have a high loan balance and little cash invested.
Don't think real estate will ramp back up in value any time soon. This is the big real estate deflation bust liquidating the crazy credit expansion bubble we experienced. All prices will go down so everything is relative. A house free and clear worth 0,000 in 2006 will become a house free and clear in 2016 worth ,000. Remarkably, that ,000 will probably buy the same goods and services as 0,000 did back in 2005. You see, it's just a numbers game. Although, if you had sold the 0,000 and PRESERVED YOUR CAPITAL and waited 10 years you could be BUYING 10 HOUSES at the 2016 bottom. FREE AND CLEAR! So, the house (three bedroom, two bath, 2 car garage with 1,250 square feet of living space on a 6,000 square foot lot) I sold for ,000 in 1968 became the bubble inflated 0,000 property in 2006. It was financed with a nothing down "liar loan" in which a person with good credit was allowed to state (not prove) his income. I am here to tell you once again that we have had our runaway inflation. That house is now 0,000 and heading for ,000 and maybe even back to that ,000 number in year 2016 - 2018 or so - a drop of 90% plus. We will have a very large pernicious real estate deflation. It will wipe out trillions of dollars in value worldwide.
The greater fool theory is selling to a bigger fool at ever higher prices. We all have been players in the game. Now, even rent prices will fall. Banks, insurance companies and REIT's (real estate investment trusts traded as stocks) will... Next, go to my website
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Delwyn Lounsbury THE DEFLATION GURU He is an Eagle Scout. He has been an award-winning real estate agent in California since 1968. He published The Economic Survival Letter in the late 1970's.
Email: delwynlounsbury@aol.com Phone: 925-575-1735
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